SRINAGAR: The Jammu and Kashmir government has identified five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalayas as having a “very high susceptibility” to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Over 2,700 buildings and crucial infrastructure have been flagged as being within potential downstream impact zones.
The announcement was made by the government in the Legislative Assembly on Tuesday. Responding to a starred assembly question posed by MLA Tanvir Sadiq, officials detailed findings from a recent scientific study. This study, conducted by the Department of Geoinformatics at the University of Kashmir and published in the Journal of Glaciology, analyzed 155 glacial lakes. The analysis utilized hydro-geomorphic indicators including lake expansion rates, dam stability, and surrounding environmental conditions.
The five lakes identified as posing the highest risk are Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal, and Bhagsar. These have been categorized under the “very high susceptibility” class when compared to other glacial lakes in the region. However, the government emphasized that this classification does not signify an immediate risk of breach or current instability in these lakes. Instead, it indicates a heightened vulnerability that could be triggered under specific conditions.
According to details received by The Chenab Times, the collective potential threat from these five lakes extends to approximately 2,704 buildings. Additionally, nearly 15 major bridges, segments of road infrastructure, and at least one hydropower project located downstream are also within the potential impact zone.
The government stated that a preliminary geospatial analysis has already been completed to map areas downstream that are exposed to potential risks. This analysis has identified habitations and infrastructure situated along possible flood paths in districts such as Ganderbal, Shopian, and Kulgam. However, officials noted that a precise risk assessment, which would include estimating flood magnitudes and determining warning timelines, necessitates detailed data on lake volumes. Such comprehensive data is currently unavailable due to the absence of field-based bathymetric surveys.
To address this data gap, authorities have initiated a plan to generate scientific data. This includes the procurement of a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat, with support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences. Bathymetric surveys of high-risk glacial lakes in the western Himalayas are scheduled to commence in 2026. The aim of these surveys is to enable accurate modelling and risk estimation for GLOFs.
Furthermore, the government is working to enhance existing monitoring and early warning systems. This will involve integrating satellite-based observations, field data, sensor-based hydrometeorological measurements, and near real-time communication frameworks. These integrated systems are expected to improve the responsiveness and effectiveness of disaster management efforts.
Future mitigation measures will include the continuous monitoring of vulnerable glacial lakes. Plans also involve the installation of early warning mechanisms in affected areas. Additionally, eco-zonation plans will be developed for downstream regions, and GLOF risk scenarios will be incorporated into district-level disaster management plans. Officials indicated that the current findings will serve as a foundational baseline for policymakers and disaster management agencies. Ongoing scientific endeavors are anticipated to further bolster preparedness and response strategies in these vulnerable Himalayan regions.
The Chenab Times News Desk