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Trump threatens to destroy Iran’s desalination plants, here’s what that could mean for Mideast

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US President Donald Trump has issued a stark warning that America could target Iran’s energy infrastructure, including its crucial desalination plants, if a deal to end the ongoing conflict is not reached swiftly and the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened. Such a threat, and the potential for Iranian retaliation against the desalination facilities of its Gulf Arab neighbors, could trigger a severe water crisis across the already arid Middle East region.

Potential for Catastrophic Impact on Water Security

According to details received by The Chenab Times, Trump stated on his social media platform, Truth Social, that if specific conditions are not met shortly, the US would respond by destroying Iran’s electric generating plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, potentially including all desalination plants. Analysts warn that the most significant danger may not stem from Trump’s actions but from Iran’s possible retaliatory measures. While Iran itself relies on desalination for only a fraction of its water, the Gulf Arab states are heavily dependent on these plants for the vast majority of their freshwater needs.

Hundreds of desalination plants are situated along the Persian Gulf coast, placing facilities that supply water to millions of people within range of Iranian missile or drone strikes. The absence of these plants could render major cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, and Doha in Qatar, incapable of sustaining their current populations. Niku Jafarnia, a researcher at Human Rights Watch, emphasized that desalination facilities are often vital for the survival of civilian populations, and their intentional destruction would constitute a war crime.

Iran Faces Its Own Water Scarcity Challenges

Iran is experiencing its fifth consecutive year of extreme drought, with some domestic media reports indicating that reservoirs supplying the capital, Tehran, are operating at less than 10 percent capacity. Satellite imagery further supports these reports, showing noticeably depleted reservoirs. The country primarily sources its water from rivers, existing reservoirs, and increasingly over-exploited underground aquifers. Previous Israeli airstrikes on oil depots near Tehran resulted in heavy smoke and acid rain, raising concerns among experts about the potential contamination of soil and parts of the city’s water supply.

Jafarnia noted that attacks on water facilities, even a single one, could have severe consequences for the population in a region already grappling with acute water scarcity. Despite efforts to expand desalination along its southern coast and pump water inland, Iran’s progress has been hampered by infrastructure limitations, high energy costs, and the impact of international sanctions.

Gulf States’ Deep Reliance on Desalination

In the Gulf region, the reliance on desalination is extensive. Kuwait obtains approximately 90 percent of its drinking water from these plants, while Oman sources around 86 percent and Saudi Arabia around 70 percent. These facilities remove salt from seawater, typically through a process called reverse osmosis, to produce the freshwater essential for cities, industries, and some agricultural activities in one of the world’s driest regions.

David Michel, a senior fellow for water security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained that even with national grids and backup systems, disruptions to desalination plants can have cascading effects across interconnected water networks. He described this as an asymmetrical tactic, where Iran, despite lacking comparable capacity to strike back directly, could impose significant costs on Gulf countries, potentially influencing their involvement in the conflict or calls for a cessation of hostilities.

Ed Cullinane, Middle East editor at Global Water Intelligence, a publication focused on the water industry, noted that desalination plants involve multiple stages, from intake systems to treatment and energy supply. Damage to any part of this chain can halt production. He further stated that these facilities are no more protected than municipal areas currently subjected to ballistic missile or drone attacks.

Vulnerability and Historical Precedents

The Gulf region is a major global hub for crude oil exports, with energy revenues forming the backbone of its national economies. Existing conflict has already disrupted key shipping routes and port activities, leading to reduced exports as storage facilities reach capacity. Michael Christopher Low, director of the Middle East Center at the University of Utah, described the Gulf states not just as petrostates but as “saltwater kingdoms,” a testament to their reliance on engineered water solutions fueled by fossil energy.

Trump’s remarks coincided with escalating conflict, including reported attacks on a water and electrical plant in Kuwait and an oil refinery in Israel, alongside new strikes by US and Israeli forces on Iran. Both US and Gulf governments have long acknowledged the risks associated with attacks on desalination facilities. A 2010 CIA analysis had already warned that sabotage of these plants could precipitate national crises in several Gulf states, with prolonged outages lasting months in the event of critical equipment destruction. The report highlighted that over 90 percent of the Gulf’s desalinated water comes from just 56 plants, each highly vulnerable to military action.

While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have invested in redundant systems like pipeline networks and storage reservoirs, smaller nations such as Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait have fewer backup water supplies. The expansion of desalination has been partly driven by climate change exacerbating drought conditions across the region. However, these energy-intensive plants contribute to carbon emissions and their coastal locations expose them to extreme weather and rising sea levels.

Past conflicts in the Middle East have seen deliberate attacks on desalination plants. During Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990-1991, retreating Iraqi forces sabotaged power and desalination facilities. Additionally, the deliberate release of millions of barrels of crude oil into the Persian Gulf threatened the seawater intake pipes of numerous desalination plants. Kuwait, in particular, faced a severe freshwater shortage and relied on emergency imports, with full recovery taking years. In more recent times, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have targeted Saudi desalination facilities amid escalating regional tensions. International humanitarian law, including the Geneva Conventions, prohibits targeting civilian infrastructure essential for the survival of a population, such as drinking water facilities.

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The Chenab Times News Desk

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