Jammu and Kashmir experienced a substantial rainfall deficit of 34 per cent in March, despite the passage of several Western Disturbances during the month, according to official data. The Union Territory received 100.7 mm of rainfall, falling considerably short of the normal precipitation of 152.9 mm for the period. This shortfall has placed the month within the ‘deficient’ rainfall category.
Information was available with The Chenab Times indicating that Srinagar recorded 88.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of 115.0 mm, signifying a deficit of 23 per cent. The winter capital, Jammu, faced a more pronounced shortfall of 43 per cent, with precipitation measuring 52.4 mm against the expected 92.3 mm.
Across various districts, the deficit was pronounced. Shopian district in South Kashmir reported the highest rainfall deficit at 74 per cent, closely followed by Kulgam which recorded a deficit of 61 per cent. These figures represent a stark deviation from the anticipated rainfall for this time of year. Other districts in the Kashmir Valley also experienced below-normal precipitation, including Anantnag (47 per cent deficit), Budgam (44 per cent deficit), Bandipora (35 per cent deficit), Pulwama (25 per cent deficit), and Kupwara (20 per cent deficit).
The Jammu division also reflected this pattern of suppressed precipitation. Kathua district registered a deficit of 62 per cent, Udhampur 51 per cent, Doda 52 per cent, Ramban 38 per cent, Kishtwar 37 per cent, and Reasi 36 per cent. This widespread reduction in rainfall across multiple districts highlights a regional trend of insufficient precipitation during March.
Conversely, Poonch in the Jammu region emerged as the wettest district for the month, recording 207.3 mm of rainfall, which is 26 per cent above its normal. Samba district also reported an excess rainfall of 39 per cent. A few other districts, such as Baramulla (13 per cent deficit), Rajouri (7 per cent deficit), and Ganderbal (10 per cent excess), experienced rainfall figures close to the seasonal norm.
Independent weather forecaster Faizan Arif explained that the mere frequency of Western Disturbances does not always guarantee effective precipitation. He noted that many of these weather systems were either transient, lacked adequate moisture content, or did not align sufficiently with the prevailing atmospheric conditions in the region, thereby limiting their capacity to generate significant rainfall.
Arif further elaborated on the potential consequences of this March rainfall deficit as the region transitions into April. He stated that the shortfall could have implications for soil moisture levels, agricultural activities, and the overall availability of water resources, particularly in those areas that have experienced substantial precipitation deficits.
This recent rainfall deficit in March follows a pattern of prolonged dry winters for Jammu and Kashmir. The Union Territory had already concluded its seventh consecutive winter with a significant rainfall deficit, recording a massive 65 per cent departure from the normal precipitation levels during the core winter months of December to February. During this period, the region received only 100.6 mm of precipitation, substantially less than the normal of 284.9 mm.
Analyzing the winter months individually, December recorded actual rainfall of 13.0 mm against a normal of 59.4 mm, a departure of 78 per cent. January saw 73.4 mm of rainfall against a normal of 95.1 mm, representing a 23 per cent deficit. February was particularly dry, with only 14.2 mm of actual rainfall compared to the normal of 130.4 mm, a substantial departure of 89 per cent.
The trend of rainfall deficits during the winter season in Jammu and Kashmir has been observed since 2019. Winter rainfall deficits recorded in subsequent years include 20 per cent in 2019-20, 37 per cent in 2020-21, 8 per cent in 2021-22, 34 per cent in 2022-23, 54 per cent in 2023-24, and 45 per cent in 2024-25. Prior to this sustained period of deficit, winters such as 2016-17 experienced a surplus of 29 per cent, 2018-19 saw a 36 per cent surplus, and 2012-13 recorded a 14 per cent surplus.
The Chenab Times News Desk