NEW DELHI, Jun 4: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Thursday that the southwest monsoon has officially arrived in Kerala. This marks the commencement of the monsoon season, which typically spans from June to September.
Information was available with The Chenab Times indicating that the monsoon has advanced into remaining parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, some areas of the westcentral and eastcentral Arabian Sea, the entirety of Lakshadweep islands, Kerala, Mahe, parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, the Comorin area, the southeast Bay of Bengal, and further sections of the southwest, westcentral, eastcentral, and northeast Bay of Bengal.
The IMD had previously forecasted the monsoon’s onset over Kerala for May 26, but its arrival was subsequently delayed. In a revised forecast last week, the department projected that the overall seasonal rainfall for India this year would be below the normal long-period average (LPA).
The IMD anticipates rainfall across India to be approximately 90% of the LPA. The LPA is defined as the average rainfall recorded in a specific region over a defined period, typically 30 to 50 years. For the country as a whole, based on data from 1971 to 2020, the LPA for the monsoon season stands at 87 centimeters. Rainfall below 90% of the LPA is classified as ‘deficient’ by the IMD.
One contributing factor identified for the potential below-normal rainfall is the developing El Nino conditions. El Nino is known to influence monsoon patterns, often leading to reduced rainfall in India.
Currently, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are observed to be transitioning towards El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific region. The IMD has indicated that El Nino conditions are likely to remain weak in June, potentially strengthening to moderate or strong levels by September.
The Chenab Times News Desk