The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that Andhra Pradesh is likely to experience a below-normal monsoon this year, with forecasts suggesting shorter, heavier rainfall spells rather than consistent, widespread showers. This prediction comes as parts of the state continue to grapple with severe heatwave conditions.
Monsoon Onset and Forecast
Conditions are currently favorable for the further advancement of the southwest monsoon into parts of Andhra Pradesh within the next two to three days, following its onset over Kerala on June 4, 2026. This onset was three days later than the normal date of June 1. While the monsoon is expected to bring some relief from the prevailing heat, the overall rainfall for the season is projected to be below the long-period average (LPA). Specifically, coastal areas and the northern parts of the state may receive less rainfall than usual, while Rayalaseema is expected to experience normal to above-normal rainfall. Several districts are anticipated to face heatwave conditions even as the monsoon approaches.
The IMD has cautioned that rainfall distribution might be uneven. While some regions could see intense, short bursts of rain, others might face a deficit. This variability poses challenges for the state’s agriculture, which heavily relies on monsoon rains. The forecast suggests an increased possibility of heatwave days throughout June, with above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures expected across most of the state.
Current Weather Conditions and Preparedness
Currently, varied weather conditions persist across Andhra Pradesh. On June 5, 2026, several districts were forecast to experience thunderstorms accompanied by lightning. Simultaneously, heatwave effects were expected to continue in other regions. An upper-air cyclonic circulation over south Telangana and adjoining Coastal Andhra is influencing the weather, leading to predictions of light to moderate rains with thunderstorms and lightning in specific districts like Polavaram, Kakinada, East Godavari, Eluru, Krishna, NTR, and Guntur.
The Andhra Pradesh State Disaster Management Authority (APSDMA) has issued advisories, highlighting the potential for mixed weather. While some areas are bracing for thunderstorms, others, particularly in Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, and Parvathipuram Manyam districts, are facing severe heatwave conditions, with temperatures potentially reaching 42–43°C in parts of Manyam, Polavaram, and Eluru districts. The IMD has also noted that the Krishna and Godavari basins are vulnerable to depressions forming in the Bay of Bengal, and coastal areas could face inundation due to high tides coinciding with floods.
Disaster management agencies and government departments have been urged by the IMD to act on early warnings to minimize potential loss of life and property. Preparedness measures and multi-hazard weather warning services are being reviewed to ensure effective response mechanisms are in place.
Monsoon Season Outlook
The arrival of the southwest monsoon in Andhra Pradesh typically marks the beginning of the crucial June-September rainfall period, which replenishes water resources and is vital for agriculture. In previous years, the monsoon’s onset over Kerala has varied, and in 2026, it arrived on June 4. The delay in the monsoon’s arrival is attributed to factors such as the El Niño phenomenon, which can weaken monsoon winds and slow their progress. While the IMD had initially predicted a weak monsoon nationally, recent outlooks suggest conditions might lead to a normal to above-normal rainfall in central Andhra Pradesh, with June expected to bring significant showers. However, the specific forecast for Andhra Pradesh indicates a below-normal rainfall in many parts for the season, with the potential for deficient rainfall impacting agricultural output.
The long-period average rainfall for Andhra Pradesh during June, based on data from 1971-2020, is 94.1 mm. The state recorded a 13% deficit in rainfall during the southwest monsoon in 2023, impacting the kharif crop. With over 60% of farms in the state being rain-dependent, the prospect of a below-normal monsoon raises concerns about water availability and crop yields for the upcoming agricultural season.
The Chenab Times News Desk