Mumbai is bracing for what could be its most delayed monsoon onset in two decades, with meteorological forecasts indicating a significant delay beyond the usual June 11 date. As of Thursday, June 19, 2026, the monsoon’s arrival in the city stands delayed by a week, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Weather models suggest that the southwest monsoon may not reach the Konkan belt, including Mumbai, until after June 25.
Meteorologists attribute the sluggish advancement of the monsoon to a lack of active weather systems that are crucial for robust rain activity. This has resulted in Mumbai continuing to experience hot and humid conditions over the weekend. The IMD’s weather prediction models indicate a surge in monsoon activity over the Konkan belt only after June 25, pushing the potential onset date further into the month.
Records from the weather bureau reveal that in the past twenty years, Mumbai has experienced prolonged monsoon onset delays in at least nine instances. The most significant delays in recent memory were recorded on June 25 in both 2019 and 2023. Prior to that, the monsoon arrived as late as June 21 in 2009. If the current forecast of a June 25 arrival proves accurate, it would indeed mark one of the most delayed monsoons in nearly two decades for the city.
However, meteorologists emphasize that the exact date of monsoon onset is not fixed and is subject to prevailing weather conditions. Scientists from the IMD explained that the onset is declared only when all necessary factors align favourably. While the long-period average for monsoon onset in Mumbai is June 11, actual arrival dates can vary significantly.
The current meteorological situation is characterized by a stalled monsoon trough since June 8, primarily due to the absence of favorable weather systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. A weak surge from the Arabian Sea and a weakened cross-equatorial flow are also contributing factors. The inactive Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is another significant reason cited for the stalled progress of the monsoon over Maharashtra.
The delayed onset has raised concerns regarding reservoir levels, water management, and the potential for one of the driest Junes in decades for Mumbai. Private weather forecasting agency Skymet has also expressed a cautious outlook, suggesting that Mumbai might see monsoon arrival only after June 25, and warning of a possible further delay. If the monsoon arrives significantly later than expected, it could intensify concerns for agriculture and water-dependent sectors across the country.
Despite the delay in the monsoon’s arrival, meteorologists have clarified that a late onset does not necessarily equate to a poor monsoon season overall. The southwest monsoon is assessed over a four-month period from June to September. While a delayed or weak June can create short-term pressures, rainfall performance can improve in the later months if active spells strengthen.
The Chenab Times News Desk