India’s reliance on imported crude oil has remained substantial, hovering around 88 per cent for the past three fiscal years, according to information presented in the Rajya Sabha by the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. This persistent dependence highlights the nation’s significant exposure to global energy market dynamics and price fluctuations.
According to details received by The Chenab Times, data from the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell indicates that crude import dependence, measured against total Petroleum, Oil and Lubricant consumption, has been consistently around 88 per cent for fiscal years 2023–24, 2024–25, and 2025–26. India, recognized as the world’s fourth-largest economy and third-largest energy consumer, is projected to account for between 20 and 30 per cent of the global incremental energy demand growth by 2050. Current daily crude oil consumption stands at approximately 5.5 million barrels, with expectations of this figure rising to 10.5 million barrels per day in the coming decades.
Domestic crude oil production has experienced a decline, falling from 37.46 million metric tonnes in 2014-15 to 28.70 million metric tonnes in 2024-25. This reduction is largely attributed to the natural depletion of ageing fields, such as Mumbai High, and fields in Assam, which have been in operation for many years and have passed their peak production stages. Geological and operational challenges, including increased water cut, sand ingress, limited reservoir influx, and subsurface complexities, have further hampered the effectiveness of drilling and infill operations, adversely affecting overall output.
In terms of production trends over the last five years, crude oil output has decreased from 30.5 million metric tonnes in 2020-21 to 28.7 million metric tonnes in 2024-25. Conversely, natural gas production has seen an increase, rising from 28,672 million standard cubic metres to 36,113 million standard cubic metres during the same period. Proven and probable crude oil reserves have also diminished, from 475.3 million metric tonnes in 2021 to 423.1 million metric tonnes in 2025. To mitigate geopolitical risks and ensure supply continuity, India’s public sector enterprises involved in oil and gas now source crude from 41 countries, expanding beyond traditional Middle Eastern suppliers to include nations like the United States, Nigeria, Angola, Canada, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico.
India’s strategic petroleum reserves, managed by Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited, possess a total capacity of 5.33 million metric tonnes, with facilities located in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. When combined with the storage capacity of Oil Marketing Companies, the country’s overall crude storage is sufficient for approximately 74 days of consumption. These reserves function as a crucial buffer against short-term supply disruptions and are managed dynamically in response to consumption patterns and existing stock levels.
Regarding the Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) sector, India imports roughly 60 per cent of its requirement, with a significant portion, about 90 per cent, transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. Developments in West Asian geopolitics have led to disruptions in LPG availability, resulting in localized shortages, including in Uttar Pradesh. The government has prioritized meeting domestic LPG demand while progressively resuming commercial supplies. Allocations to commercial users, initially set at 20 per cent, have been raised to 70 per cent of pre-crisis levels, with an additional 10 per cent linked to reforms in piped natural gas (PNG) expansion. Priority is being given to essential services and food-related establishments such as restaurants, hotels, industrial canteens, food processing and dairy units, subsidized canteens operated by state governments, community kitchens, hospitals, and educational institutions.
Retail prices for domestic LPG cylinders have seen an increase. Effective March 7, 2026, the price of a 14.2-kilogram domestic cylinder in Delhi rose by Rs 60 to Rs 913. Similarly, commercial cylinders of 19 kilograms have increased by Rs 115 to Rs 1,883. For beneficiaries of the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), targeted subsidies reduce the effective price of domestic LPG to Rs 613 per cylinder. These prices are influenced by international LPG benchmarks, foreign exchange rate variations, and India’s import dependency. To address under-recoveries faced by Oil Marketing Companies on domestic LPG sales, the government provided compensation of Rs 22,000 crore in 2022-23 and has approved an additional Rs 30,000 crore for 2025-26.
Retail prices for petrol and diesel have remained relatively stable over the past four years, despite considerable volatility in global crude oil prices. This stability has been maintained through periodic adjustments in central excise duties, aimed at shielding consumers from significant price shocks. Recent reductions of Rs 10 per litre in excise duties on both petrol and diesel have been implemented to protect the public from international price fluctuations, particularly those stemming from tensions in the Middle East. In contrast to some neighboring countries, India has experienced minimal changes in retail fuel prices between February 2022 and February 2026, with petrol prices in Delhi showing a marginal decline of 0.67 per cent over this period.
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