European airports are on the verge of a systemic jet fuel shortage within weeks, a crisis exacerbated by the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple industry reports and aviation bodies. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has warned that if maritime traffic through the critical shipping corridor does not resume significantly and stably within the next three weeks, the European Union could face severe disruptions to air travel, impacting airport operations, connectivity, and the broader economy.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for global oil shipments, has severely constrained the supply of jet fuel to Europe, which relies heavily on imports from the Persian Gulf. Around half of Europe’s jet fuel imports typically transit through this vital waterway, accounting for approximately 25-30% of the continent’s jet fuel demand. The disruption has led to a dramatic increase in jet fuel prices, with some reports indicating prices have more than doubled since late February, significantly outpacing the rise in crude oil prices. Jet fuel prices in Europe have reportedly risen by approximately 138% year-over-year, while some regions have seen increases exceeding 160%.
The escalating situation has prompted urgent calls from aviation industry leaders for the European Union to implement emergency measures. These include the temporary suspension of aviation taxes to alleviate financial pressure on airlines and the consideration of coordinated joint fuel purchasing mechanisms at the EU level. Such measures, similar to those employed during the COVID-19 pandemic for medical supplies and in 2022 for natural gas procurement, could help strengthen negotiating power in a tight global market and prevent internal competition among member states for limited fuel supplies.
Several European airports have already begun implementing rationing of jet fuel due to dwindling stocks. Some airports in Italy have reportedly imposed restrictions on jet fuel deliveries, prioritizing ambulance, government, and long-duration flights. Airlines are already responding to the higher fuel costs by increasing ticket fares, imposing additional fuel surcharges, and in some cases, reducing flight schedules or considering capacity cuts. Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, has indicated that its fuel suppliers can only guarantee supply until mid-May, and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact fuel availability at its European network airports, potentially leading to a 10% decrease in flights this summer.
The crisis has exposed the European Union’s vulnerability due to reduced domestic refining capacity and a heavy reliance on imports. Industry experts emphasize the need for a long-term strategy to strengthen Europe’s energy sovereignty through expanded refining capabilities and diversified sourcing. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has cautioned that even if tensions ease and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it could take several months for fuel prices and supply chains to return to pre-crisis levels, given the disruption to refining capacity in the Middle East.
The impending shortage poses a significant threat to the upcoming summer travel season, a period crucial for the tourism industry and associated economies. The potential for flight cancellations and disruptions could impact millions of passengers and compound the broader macroeconomic damage already being caused by rising oil prices. The current crisis underscores the urgent need for strengthening jet fuel resilience through strategic reserves, diversified sourcing, and enhanced coordination between governments, airlines, and refiners. In the longer term, accelerating the development of sustainable aviation fuels and reinforcing supply chain redundancy are seen as critical to reducing the sector’s exposure to such shocks.
Global Affairs Desk at The Chenab Times covers international developments, global diplomacy, and foreign policy issues through fact-based reporting, explainers, and analytical pieces. The desk focuses on major geopolitical events, diplomatic engagements, and international trends, with an emphasis on verified information, multiple perspectives, and contextual understanding of global affairs.