Shipping traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz continues to fall far short of pre-conflict levels, despite a recent diplomatic breakthrough aimed at easing regional tensions. Current transit numbers indicate a substantial deficit compared to the waterway’s historical activity, raising ongoing concerns for global energy security and trade.
According to maritime data, on June 18, 2026, only 26 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, with 7 inbound and 19 outbound. This marks a notable increase from the previous day, with outbound traffic surging by 46%. However, this figure remains drastically lower than the approximately 130 commercial ships that typically transited the waterway daily before the recent conflict began in February 2026. The data also indicates that some vessels continue to operate with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) turned off, a practice known as running dark, particularly in the northern corridor, raising questions about transparency in the region’s maritime movements.
The conflict, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, 2026, led to Iran’s significant disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. At its peak, shipping traffic dropped by over 90%, with some days seeing only a single ship pass through. This blockade and subsequent uncertainty have had a profound impact on global energy markets, contributing to oil price spikes and supply chain disruptions. Reports suggest that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had issued warnings and, at times, boarded and attacked merchant ships, also laying sea mines in the strait. This led to a significant rise in war-risk insurance premiums for vessels navigating the waterway.
While a memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran was reached on June 14, 2026, to end the war and reopen the Strait, the path to full normalization is proving gradual. The immediate reopening of shipping lanes is being met with caution by many shipping companies due to lingering risks, including potential mines and the possibility of resumed attacks. Despite diplomatic efforts and a ceasefire extension, the physical reopening of the waterway requires substantial work, including mine clearance and the evacuation of stranded vessels, which is expected to take weeks to months.
Data from June 20, 2026, shows that while 28 vessels were recorded as inbound, there were zero outbound transits reported for that day, highlighting the continued challenges in restoring normal traffic flow. This operational standstill, particularly the lack of outbound commercial traffic, underscores persistent security risks and a significant breakdown in regular commercial operations, especially impacting the critical energy sector. The absence of crude tankers and bulk carriers making outbound transits raises significant supply chain concerns.
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea and the open ocean, through which approximately 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption passed in 2024. The disruption to this vital artery has had far-reaching consequences, including increased freight rates and insurance costs for Indian refiners and shipping companies. While the situation is slowly improving, analysts suggest that it may take months for shipping traffic to return to pre-war levels, with a full recovery in cargo volumes of oil, gas, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) likely taking even longer due to potential damage to infrastructure during the conflict.
International organizations, such as the UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO), have been working with international partners to support states in building capacity to counter security threats and promote freedom of navigation. However, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz has starkly demonstrated how ships and seafarers can become leverage in geopolitical disputes, with civilian merchant vessels lacking the capabilities to defend themselves against sophisticated attacks.
The market has begun to recalibrate to the evolving situation, with crude oil prices showing a decline from recent highs. However, physical friction costs, such as increased operational complexity and potential delays, continue to influence freight rates. The ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with potential disruptions in other maritime chokepoints like the Bab al-Mandab Strait, highlights the inherent vulnerabilities in global shipping and energy markets. The ability of Iran to potentially close the Strait again, even with a diplomatic agreement in place, remains a significant factor influencing future stability.
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Global Affairs Desk at The Chenab Times covers international developments, global diplomacy, and foreign policy issues through fact-based reporting, explainers, and analytical pieces. The desk focuses on major geopolitical events, diplomatic engagements, and international trends, with an emphasis on verified information, multiple perspectives, and contextual understanding of global affairs.