Parts of Punjab are likely to experience a spell of rain from November 12 to 15, as a fresh western disturbance is set to influence the northwestern Himalayan region. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a forecast predicting isolated to scattered rainfall across the state during this period.
Information was available with The Chenab Times indicating that while Punjab has seen above-normal post-monsoon rainfall, the current month of November has so far remained dry. Between October 1 and the morning of November 9, the state recorded 27.7 mm of rainfall, a substantial 182 per cent surplus compared to the long-period average (LPA) of 9.8 mm. This elevated rainfall was observed across all districts, with surpluses varying from 2 per cent to as high as 1,062 per cent. Pathankot, Hoshiarpur, and Gurdaspur emerged as the wettest districts in October, while Moga, Kapurthala, and Ferozepur received the lowest amounts.
Currently, an upper-air cyclonic circulation is present over north Haryana and its vicinity at an altitude of 3,100 metres. An additional circulation is situated over northwest Rajasthan and adjoining areas at a height of 900 metres. These meteorological phenomena contribute to the atmospheric conditions influencing the anticipated weather patterns.
The IMD bulletin, released on Monday, also forecasts shallow to moderate fog in isolated areas of Punjab during the night and morning hours over the next three days. This is a common occurrence in the region during this time of year, often impacting visibility.
Over the past 24 hours, day temperatures across Punjab were noted to be normal, while night temperatures were recorded as appreciably above normal. The highest maximum temperature registered in the state was 33.2 degrees Celsius in Bathinda. Conversely, Adampur recorded the lowest temperature at 11.8 degrees Celsius. These temperature fluctuations are typical as the transition from autumn to winter progresses.
Neighbouring Haryana has also experienced a dry spell in November. However, similar to Punjab, October saw a significant surplus in rainfall for Haryana, which was 226 per cent above the LPA. Day temperatures in Haryana over the last 24 hours were normal, with night temperatures also reported to be above normal.
The meteorological department’s forecast extends to other northwestern regions as well. Isolated to scattered rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds moving at speeds of up to 60 kmph, is predicted for Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand on select days until November 15. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is anticipated over parts of these states between November 12 and 13, with the potential for heavy rainfall in some locations during this period.
The advance of the western disturbance is a key factor for these expected weather changes. Western disturbances are extratropical storms that originate in the Mediterranean region and travel eastwards, bringing significant precipitation, particularly in the form of snow and rain, to the northern parts of the Indian subcontinent. Their arrival marks a shift in weather patterns, often leading to a decrease in temperatures and improved air quality after the monsoon season.
The IMD’s role is crucial in providing timely and accurate weather forecasts, enabling authorities and the public to prepare for potential weather events. Such advisories help in mitigating risks associated with extreme weather, including fog, heavy rainfall, and strong winds. The department continuously monitors atmospheric conditions to issue updated forecasts and warnings as necessary.
The projected rainfall is expected to bring a temporary respite from the dry spell in parts of Punjab, though the full impact on agricultural activities will depend on the intensity and duration of the precipitation. Farmers and authorities will be closely watching the weather developments over the coming days.
The Chenab Times News Desk
