The Indian Himalayas have borne the brunt of a relentless monsoon season, grappling with flash flooding and landslides that have claimed numerous lives and inflicted substantial economic losses across Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Experts point to a changing climate as a key factor exacerbating the situation.
The recent bout of heavy rainfall, as reported by the Times of India, can be attributed to the northward shift of the monsoon trough axis, resulting in favorable conditions for intense rainfall in the Himalayan region. Climate change, however, appears to be a driving force behind the escalating ferocity of these events.
Dr. Akshay Deoras, a Meteorologist and Research Scientist from the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Reading, United Kingdom, highlighted, “Global warming has unequivocally demonstrated that heightened greenhouse gas emissions, notably CO2, amplify the atmosphere’s capacity to retain moisture. Consequently, when conducive weather patterns arise, the atmosphere releases a greater volume of water vapor as rainfall. This augments the likelihood of ordinary rain events intensifying into heavy or extremely heavy downpours due to the impact of global warming.”
Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, explained the phenomenon in the context of the current break-monsoon conditions, where the monsoon trough shifts northward over the Himalayas, triggering substantial rainfall. Palawat emphasized that a warmer atmosphere intensifies rain levels significantly. “Elevated warming translates to increased energy in the environment, leading to greater precipitation. Abundant moisture in the air causes instances of torrential rainfall over short spans, yielding devastation as witnessed this season in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.”
Monsoon 2023, according to experts, offers a stark preview of the repercussions of unchecked climate change on the Himalayas. With the atmosphere, land, and oceans all experiencing accelerated warming, the atmosphere’s moisture-holding capacity has surged. This translates to higher evaporation rates from the Earth’s surface, bolstering the air’s moisture capacity and resulting in more concentrated rainfall, often within compact areas and shorter timeframes.
Altering Monsoon Patterns have also emerged as a hallmark of the changing climate. Western disturbances, traditionally active during winter in lower latitudes, have recently displayed increased activity during the summer months, impacting the Himalayas during the monsoon season. “July saw unprecedented rains in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand due to the interaction of two weather systems – a potent western disturbance and the monsoon,” explained Dr. Akshay Deoras.
A recent study by The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) emphasizes the mounting, largely irreversible transformations occurring in the Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) cryosphere due to climate change. Glaciers, snow, and permafrost in the HKH are experiencing accelerated shifts, impacting downstream regions heavily reliant on these water sources.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) underscores escalating warming with altitude in the Himalayas, leading to changes in snowlines, glacier altitudes, and snow/rain transition heights. These transformations, driven by elevation-dependent warming, are projected to disrupt weather patterns. The consequences span from the vulnerability of endemic species to unpredictable water supply shifts affecting irrigation and food security.
“The Shivalik range, composed of debris, is particularly vulnerable due to its composition of weak sandstone and shale rock,” warns Professor YP Sundriyal of HNB Garhwal University. Deforestation, torrential rainfall, and unchecked construction compound the erosion risks in this fragile region.
Scientists universally call for immediate climate action to counter these accelerating changes. Urgent local climate adaptation strategies should be parallel to global and national mitigation efforts. “Local adaptation needs to go beyond annual weather forecasts. Disaster-proofing, based on district-level assessments, is crucial,” asserts Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
The recent tragedies in Himachal Pradesh underscore the intensifying impact of climate change, making it imperative to bolster infrastructure, enhance disaster preparedness, and promote sustainable land management practices, as stressed by Anjal Prakash, Research Director at the Bharti Institute of Public Policy.
(Inputs from TOI)
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