Sofia, October 5 — Bulgaria’s population has declined by more than 25% over the past four decades, from a peak of about 8.96 million in the late 1980s to a projected 6.71 million in 2025, according to data from the United Nations Population Division and Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (NSI). The contraction, driven by low birth rates, sustained emigration, and an aging demographic structure, has created major challenges for the European Union’s poorest member state — from labor shortages to pressure on pension and healthcare systems, according to details received by The Chenab Times.
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs places Bulgaria’s population at 8.96 million in 1988, its historical high. At the time, the country had a population density of roughly 81 people per square kilometer and a total fertility rate near 2.0 children per woman — close to the replacement level. However, demographic decline began subtly even before the fall of communism, as emigration to Western Europe and the Soviet Union slowly increased despite strict controls.
By mid-2025, UN projections estimate Bulgaria’s population at 6.71 million, a fall of more than 2.2 million people from its 1988 peak. The rate of decline accelerated after 1989, when open borders and economic transition prompted large-scale migration. Official data and academic studies suggest that over one million Bulgarians permanently emigrated between 1990 and 2010, primarily to Spain, Germany, Greece, and the United Kingdom, seeking better employment opportunities.
Census data show a steady downward trajectory: Bulgaria’s 1992 census recorded 8.49 million, followed by 7.93 million in 2001, 7.36 million in 2011, and 6.52 million in the most recent 2021 census — an 11.5% drop over the decade. The NSI attributes this to both negative natural growth and outward migration. In 2023, Bulgaria recorded around 57,500 births and 101,000 deaths, continuing a natural decrease that has persisted for decades.
According to the NSI and Our World in Data, the country’s fertility rate stands at 1.58 children per woman, well below the replacement threshold of 2.1. Meanwhile, Bulgaria’s median age has reached 44.8 years, one of the highest in the EU, underscoring the demographic imbalance between working-age adults and retirees. Worldometer estimates that 77% of the population now lives in urban areas, with Sofia alone home to over 1.2 million residents, while many rural areas face deep depopulation.
The COVID-19 pandemic intensified the decline, with 2021–2022 marking some of the highest excess mortality rates in Europe. NSI data indicate the population fell below 6.5 million in early 2023, before stabilizing slightly due to limited immigration and returning nationals. Ethnic Bulgarians account for roughly 84% of the total population, while Turks make up around 9% and Roma about 5%, according to the 2021 census. Some Turkish families have returned in recent years, modestly offsetting losses in rural regions.
The Bulgarian government has acknowledged the demographic crisis as a strategic threat. Its National Strategy for Demographic Development (2022–2032) focuses on improving family benefits, child allowances, and housing incentives to encourage higher birth rates, while also supporting the reintegration of citizens living abroad. Officials aim to raise fertility to 1.7 by 2030, though experts warn that structural reforms in healthcare, education, and wages are needed to make such goals achievable.
Looking ahead, the UN projects Bulgaria’s population to fall to about 6.38 million by 2030 and below 5 million by 2050 if current trends persist. With a shrinking labor force of around 3.2 million, analysts warn of a growing strain on the pension system, which could reach ~12-15% of GDP by 2040. Bulgaria’s trajectory mirrors what demographers term a “demographic winter” across Eastern Europe — similar declines are seen in Romania, Croatia, and Latvia.
While recent stabilization efforts and limited immigration offer faint signs of relief, Bulgaria remains one of the fastest-shrinking nations in the world. Reversing the trend, experts say, will require not only economic opportunity but also renewed confidence that the country’s future can be built at home rather than abroad.
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