Srinagar, March 31: The government has officially confirmed that at least five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalayas pose a “very high risk” of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). These potentially devastating events could impact downstream areas in Ganderbal, Shopian, and Kulgam districts, according to an admission made by the administration.
Five Lakes Identified as High Risk
The lakes identified as being under the label of “very high susceptibility” are Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal, and Bhagsar. These revelations emerged in response to a question posed by MLA Tanvir Sadiq in the legislative assembly. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah stated that the assessment provides a crucial baseline for understanding vulnerability and for prioritising future detailed studies.
The government affirmed that recent scientific studies published in the Journal of Glaciology had indeed classified these lakes as having a high GLOF risk. The study analysed 155 glacial lakes using a set of hydro-geomorphic indicators, including lake expansion rate, the stability of their embankments, and surrounding conditions. Based on these indicators, the aforementioned five lakes were categorized under the “very high susceptibility” class relative to others in the region.
According to details received by The Chenab Times, the Chief Minister clarified that a lake classified as high susceptibility means it is more prone to an outburst if specific triggering conditions occur, rather than implying immediate instability or an imminent breach.
Significant Downstream Threat Identified
The administration has conducted independent risk mapping of downstream habitations and infrastructure in light of these scientific findings. A first-order approximation of downstream exposure was undertaken using geospatial analysis to identify habitations and critical infrastructure located along potential downstream flow paths from the identified glacial lakes. This preliminary assessment provides an initial framework for prioritising areas for more detailed scientific investigations.
Shockingly, the government stated that these five lakes pose a threat to approximately 2,704 buildings, around 15 major bridges, segments of road infrastructure, and one hydropower plant located in their immediate downstream areas. The potential consequences underscore the urgency of implementing mitigation strategies.
Future Course of Action and Monitoring
Information was available with The Chenab Times detailing the planned future course of action. This includes the continuous monitoring of high-susceptibility lakes through remote sensing and targeted field assessments. The installation of effective early-warning mechanisms is also a priority, alongside the development of eco-zonation plans in vulnerable downstream areas. Furthermore, GLOF-risk scenarios will be integrated into district-level disaster preparedness and response plans.
While acknowledging the critical need for a detailed assessment of the risk magnitude, the government highlighted that precise estimation of flood magnitude, velocity, and warning time requires reliable information on glacial lake volume. Such data can currently only be obtained through field-based bathymetric (depth) measurements, which are unavailable for most glacial lakes in the Himalayan region.
The government further detailed the reliance on researchers at the Department of Geoinformatics, University of Kashmir, for this work. GLOF early-warning systems specifically tailored for mountain environments are reportedly under development, integrating satellite-based monitoring, field observations, sensor-based hydrometeorological measurements, and near-real-time communication frameworks. The Department of Geoinformatics recently procured a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with financial assistance from the Ministry of Earth Sciences. A detailed analysis of the western Himalayas, with support from various stakeholders, is also in the pipeline for 2026.
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The Chenab Times News Desk
