India Could Avert 1.7 Million Deaths by Shifting to Zero-Emission Vehicles: Study

India has the potential to prevent an estimated 1.7 million premature deaths by accelerating its transition to zero-emission vehicles by the year 2050, according to a comprehensive global study. The research highlights the significant public health burden posed by road transport pollution across the nation.

Information was available with The Chenab Times indicating that the report, titled ‘Health benefits of zero-emission transport through 2050’, models a scenario where all new vehicle sales become zero-emission by 2045. It further analyzes the subsequent impacts on air quality, the reduction of premature mortality, and the incidence of childhood asthma.

The study’s principal findings underscore road transport pollution as a major contributor to India’s public health challenges. In 2024 alone, it is associated with one premature death every six minutes and a new case of childhood asthma every 34 minutes. India bears a substantial portion of this global burden, accounting for 13 percent of all premature deaths attributable to road transport emissions worldwide.

The National Capital Region (NCR), including Delhi, faces a particularly acute problem. Despite comprising only about 5 percent of India’s population, the NCR accounts for a disproportionate 23 percent of road transport-related pediatric asthma cases nationally. In heavily polluted areas within the NCR, road transport emissions alone surpass the World Health Organization’s (WHO) annual guideline for nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) of 10 µg/m³ when considering all sources combined.

Premature deaths linked to road transport pollution are most concentrated along the Indo-Gangetic Plain, with the NCR identified as one of India’s most severe pollution hotspots. The study’s future projections for 2024 reveal that the NCR was responsible for 8,100 premature deaths, representing 9 percent of India’s national total. Additionally, the region recorded 3,500 new pediatric asthma cases, which constitute 23 percent of the national figure, despite its relatively small population share.

Within the NCR, Delhi itself recorded 2,800 premature deaths and 1,500 new pediatric asthma cases directly attributable to road transport pollution in 2024. These figures highlight the critical need for targeted interventions in densely populated urban centers.

The report also emphasizes the significant role of heavy-duty vehicles, such as trucks and buses, in India’s overall transport emissions profile. Although these vehicles represent a smaller fraction of the total vehicle fleet, their contribution to air pollution is disproportionately high, necessitating specific policy attention.

Lingzhi Jin, a Senior Researcher at the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) and a co-author of the study, stated that the health burden from road transport is unevenly distributed. Jin highlighted the NCR’s significant share of childhood asthma cases linked to traffic pollution and emphasized that accelerating the shift to zero-emission vehicles in these highly exposed regions offers one of the most direct pathways to safeguarding public health.

Moorthy Nair, also a Researcher at the ICCT, commented that road transport continues to be a major factor in India’s air pollution-related health crisis. Nair stressed that achieving meaningful public health gains requires a dual approach: expediting the adoption of low- and zero-emission vehicles while simultaneously phasing out older, high-emitting vehicles through regulatory measures. He added that progress in vehicle electrification should not be hampered by a lack of action on older vehicle fleets. While forward-looking transport policies are currently more concentrated in the national capital, scaling these initiatives nationwide is crucial for securing lasting public health benefits.

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