Nearly 60 per cent of the proposed Manali-Leh railway line, a crucial strategic infrastructure project in the Indian Himalayas, passes through areas identified as facing moderate to high risks from natural hazards, according to a new study. The findings underscore the necessity for comprehensive geotechnical and cryospheric investigations to mitigate potential climate-induced disasters along the alignment.
Information was available with The Chenab Times indicating that the study analyzed the proposed 275-kilometer rail link, revealing that 7.96 percent of the route falls within a very high susceptibility zone, 20.28 percent in a high susceptibility zone, and 29.32 percent in a moderate susceptibility zone. The remaining 42.44 percent is categorized as low and very low susceptibility.
The researchers involved in the study highlighted that a substantial segment of the intended railway line will traverse regions prone to moderate to high levels of natural hazards. This necessitates detailed geotechnical and cryospheric assessments prior to commencing construction, they emphasized. The study further pointed out that several key locations designated for stations, including Chhuchot, Phe Yard, Debring, She Road, and Darcha, are situated within these high susceptibility zones.
The region encompassing the proposed rail link is characterized by complex geological formations and is frequently subjected to extreme climate events. This makes it particularly vulnerable to various cryospheric hazards. These hazards include landslides triggered by permafrost thaw, avalanches, and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). The construction will occur in permafrost regions, which are known to cause ground instability and can lead to significant damage to infrastructure.
The research was conducted by three academics from the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Indian Institute of Technology, Mandi. Their findings were published in Geodesy and Geodynamics, a peer-reviewed journal by Elsevier, on October 30. To conduct their analysis, the researchers defined a 20-kilometer-wide study zone along the prospective railway route. They incorporated nine conditioning factors into their assessment: elevation, slope, permafrost zonation index, distance to glaciers, distance to glacial lakes, distance to rivers, distance to lineaments, lithology, and geomorphology.
The altitudinal variation within the study area is considerable, ranging from approximately 6,870 feet near Manali to over 21,000 feet in Ladakh. Temperatures fluctuate dramatically, reaching up to 35 degrees Celsius in summer and dropping below minus 28 degrees Celsius during winter. These extreme environmental conditions heighten the region’s susceptibility to cryospheric hazards, which could potentially endanger transportation infrastructure.
The Leh-Manali corridor is recognized as one of the most strategically vital transportation routes within the Indian Himalayas. The existing Leh-Manali Highway currently serves as an indispensable link connecting Ladakh and Himachal Pradesh, facilitating military logistics, supporting local economies through trade, and boosting tourism. However, this corridor traverses extensive glacier-covered terrain, slopes affected by permafrost, steep valleys, and high mountain passes, rendering it highly exposed to cryospheric hazards.
In response to escalating transportation demands and the strategic imperative of the region, the Government of India has advanced plans for the Bilaspur–Manali–Leh railway project. This ambitious undertaking is anticipated to become one of the world’s highest railway systems. The proposed line spans approximately 275 kilometers, comprising 121 kilometers of open track and 154 kilometers of tunnels, with 62 such structures planned. The alignment is set to pass through significant locations such as Sissu, Keylong, Darcha, Sarchu, Pang, Tanglang La Pass, Upshi, and Leh, featuring a total of 15 proposed railway stations distributed along its path.
The researchers stated that while this new railway is expected to significantly enhance regional connectivity and foster socio-economic development, its long-term structural integrity could be compromised by cryosphere-related hazards and climate-driven landscape alterations. The study further noted that the Himalayan region, often referred to as the “Third Pole” due to its vast ice and snow reserves outside the polar regions, plays a crucial role in maintaining water resources and ecosystems across Asia.
The acceleration of climate warming has reportedly led to increased glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, variability in snow cover, and the expansion of glacial lakes. This trend has consequently raised the frequency of cryospheric hazards, including GLOFs, avalanches, debris flows, and slope failures induced by thawing. These perils pose substantial threats to mountain communities, their ecosystems, and essential infrastructure, particularly the transportation networks situated in these high-altitude environments, the study concluded.
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