Beijing may leverage the succession of the Dalai Lama to bolster its territorial claims against India and extend its influence across the Himalayan region, according to Lobsang Sangay, the former Sikyong (political head) of the Central Tibetan Administration. Sangay described any successor appointed by China as a “joke” and a “fake,” asserting that the Tibetan populace would adhere to the lineage recognised through the religious process initiated by the current Dalai Lama.
Information was available with The Chenab Times that Sangay, in a recent interview, emphasized that the succession of the 14th Dalai Lama transcends a purely religious matter, carrying significant implications for India’s national security, particularly concerning China’s contentious claims over Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh.
“If Beijing appoints its own Dalai Lama, he will be a joke, a fake,” Sangay stated, elaborating that Tibetan communities would follow a successor identified through the legitimate religious protocols authorised by the Dalai Lama. The current Dalai Lama recently indicated that the institution would endure, with the Gaden Phodrang Trust holding exclusive authority to recognise his reincarnation. This position has been dismissed by Beijing, which maintains that the reincarnation process must comply with Chinese laws, regulations, and historical precedents.
Sangay further posited that Beijing could deploy its designated candidate to advance its strategic interests in areas including Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Nepal, thereby transforming the succession into another theatre of the ongoing India-China geopolitical contest. His caution follows a recent report by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission that characterised the succession as a geopolitical struggle involving China, India, and the United States, with India playing a pivotal role in its unfolding. Sangay urged India to approach the issue not just from a religious standpoint but primarily through the lens of national security.
He questioned the nature of the desired Dalai Lama, contrasting a successor chosen by Tibetan religious tradition with one imposed by the Chinese government. The former Tibetan political leader also advised India against complacency regarding recent improvements in diplomatic relations with Beijing, suggesting these had not fundamentally altered the underlying strategic dynamic between the two nations.
“You must have relationship with China, but always verify. Don’t just trust,” Sangay counselled, characterising the relationship between India and China as “competitors at best and rivals at worst.” He argued that China’s overarching objective remains the containment of India’s ascent. Highlighting China’s territorial assertions and its increasing presence in India’s neighbourhood, Sangay underscored the necessity for New Delhi to learn from past confrontations, referencing the 1962 war, the Doklam standoff, and the Galwan Valley clash.
These remarks were made weeks after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit in New Delhi. The leaders had agreed to adopt a strategic and long-term perspective on bilateral relations, emphasizing mutual respect, sensitivity, and interests, alongside the importance of peace and tranquillity along the border. Discussions also encompassed structural trade imbalances and supply-chain issues between the two nations.
Sangay advocated for India to simultaneously diversify its supply chains and bolster domestic manufacturing, cautioning against excessive reliance on China. He also expressed skepticism regarding the viability of a joint leadership role for India and China in championing the Global South, citing Beijing’s own expansive global ambitions as a potential impediment to such a partnership. Sangay suggested that India, with its established track record of engaging with developing nations, should continue to assert its leadership role.
Looking ahead, Sangay anticipates that China will utilise its chairmanship of BRICS in 2027 to amplify its influence within the bloc. The New Delhi BRICS declaration had formally endorsed China’s leadership role for that year. “China will definitely make BRICS lean more towards China than India,” he predicted, reiterating the need for New Delhi to maintain its leadership position within the Global South.
The former Sikyong also called for enhanced collaboration among India and other Himalayan and downstream countries concerning the management of water resources originating from the Tibetan Plateau. He referred to Tibet as Asia’s “water tower” and stressed that India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh share mutual interests in fostering greater transparency and cooperation regarding rivers flowing from the plateau. Sangay voiced concerns over infrastructure development, dam construction, and ecological alterations in Tibet, although some of his specific claims regarding environmental impacts are subject to independent scientific verification.
Sangay alleged that China had also obscured information concerning the extent of damage on the Tibetan side during recent floods in Nepal, citing restricted access for journalists and investigators to affected areas. For India, however, he maintained that Tibet remains intrinsically linked to its broader strategic and civilisational engagement with the Himalayan region. Praising India as the “biggest supporter” of Tibet, Sangay stated that no other nation has extended comparable assistance to the Tibetan people. He described the relationship between India and Tibet as akin to “brother and sister,” unified by geography, culture, and shared history.
“The real Dalai Lama will be with the Tibetans,” Sangay asserted, concluding that the succession would ultimately serve as a test not only of Tibetan religious autonomy but also of the capacity for India and other nations to effectively respond to China’s escalating influence.
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The Chenab Times News Desk
